Sustained Warmth Begins Today for New England

A multi-day stretch of well above average temperatures has arrived for New England. Widespread mid-70s north to low 80s south will persist for the region into early next week. This will come as a rather strong area of high pressure has slipped to New England's south, resulting in a southerly return flow. A general trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern will set up, supporting highs a good 10-15° above average by early next week.

For today, a backdoor cold front will likely drop into Maine and northernmost New Hampshire, knocking down temperatures a bit in those areas. This front should stall out rather quickly later today before pushing back north and east as a warm front. This front will be subtle and likely not felt by most of the region. It will be felt most across northeastern Maine, where highs may top out in the 60s.

The peak of this warmth will likely come Sunday through Tuesday for New England. A subtle shift in flow will likely occur on Sunday, which will keep eastern areas of the region a notch cooler as winds come off the ocean. The northern tier of the region will likely be the warmest (relative to averages), with temperatures sinking slightly moving closer and closer to the coast. Widespread 80s will still be likely across much of the region, but daily records will likely only be in jeopardy across the north on Sunday.

Below: Temperature departure from average on Sunday afternoon:

All of New England, right to the coast, will see peak warmth Monday and Tuesday. As the high pressure begins to shift to the east, the pressure gradient will increase, allowing a stronger southwesterly flow. This flow will prevent sea breezes from developing and 80+° temperatures will likely push to the coast. Each day will be similar to each other with highs likely only a degree or two different. Clouds will likely begin to increase slightly from the full sunshine expected over the weekend.

Daily record highs will be possible across the region during this stretch. Daily records are highly variable across the region during this stretch, ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s depending on the location in New England. October 7th (Tuesday), for example, has a record high of 91° in Hartford and 90° in Boston and Manchester. Caribou and Houlton, Maine's daily record on that same day is just 76°. On Monday, Caribou and Houlton's records in the low 70s are expected to be topped by several degrees.

Below: Temperature departure from average on Monday:

The ridge of high pressure will shift farther east Tuesday, with a cold front crashing through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will bring temperatures crashing back down to our October reality. It should also bring a decent slug of widespread rainfall. It looks like the rainfall will move west to east Wednesday morning for most, but several days out, timing can always change. A widespread half inch to inch of rain is currently favored, but this could certainly trend in a drier direction. Either way, it will be a welcome rain, but may do little in terms of drought-denting.

Below: Current rainfall outlook:

A new, sprawling area of high pressure will build into New England behind this front. This will set up blustery conditions with a tightening pressure gradient. Much cooler temperatures will persist given the Canadian origin of the high pressure system. Overall, warmer than average weather is still expected to outnumber cooler days this month with a  trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern expected to persist.