For the last couple weeks now, New England has been on a roller coaster ride with temperatures. This ride will continue into the new week as temperatures briefly soar once again around the middle of the week. Not only will the day to day temperatures be up and down, but there will be a decent contrast in temperatures from the morning to afternoon to start the week.
Sunday and Monday will be dominated by a decently strong area of high pressure. This high pressure system will be just to New England's west on Sunday, allowing for a cool northwest flow into the region. This high will shift offshore later on Monday, leading to a cool onshore flow. With high pressure nearby or overhead, it will lead to seasonable afternoons that follow cold mornings.
Below: Weather map for Sunday evening:
Light winds, clear skies and very low humidity allow the temperature to bottom out overnight, with most of New England falling below freezing Sunday and Monday mornings. The freezing mornings will be followed by a rapid warm-up back to the 50s for most of the region.
In a setup very similar to last week, an approaching frontal system from the west will lift a warm front through New England. While this warm sector doesn't look quite as warm as last week's, it is still looking to provide widespread 60s north to 70s south Tuesday and Wednesday. The Lower Connecticut River and Merrimack Valleys may be able to push well into the 70s for Wednesday. Eastern Maine will likely get held to the 50s on Tuesday as the warm front takes longer to arrive.
A cold front will quickly follow the warm front on Wednesday, reaching into southern New England by Thursday morning. Also similar to last week, cooler air will lag behind the front, so all of New England is looking to get well above average on Wednesday despite the front's earlier arrival compared to last week.
Another broad area of high pressure will likely set up for New England after the frontal passage. This will allow temperatures to moderate, although temperatures may remain above average with 50s north and 60s south. Another cold front may move into New England next weekend, bringing temperatures down another notch for next weekend.
Looking into the extended, generally above average temperatures are favored to win out for New England, as much of the region has a 60-70% chance of above average temperatures going into mid-November. This doesn't mean every day will be above average as cold air intrusions will occur from time to time, it's just a fact of life for New England regardless of what long-term guidance says. This means the temperature roller coaster may continue for the first half of November with those cold air intrusions followed by decent warm-ups.
Unfortunately, New England remains in a pattern of persistence when it comes to precipitation. The region has been experiencing long periods of strong ridging followed by brief and weak periods of troughing. This has really limited the rain chances over the past month or so. This will continue into the new week with high pressure dominating much of the time and the frontal system bringing limited shower chances.
The ridging has forced storm systems well to the north of New England, leaving the northern tier with the most showers while central and southern New England get almost nothing. This will happen with the frontal system this week with the warm and cold fronts bringing showers to far northern New England while forcing will be very weak for the rest of New England, leading to only spot shower chances.
Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation outlook:
With that said, there will likely be a storm system that will lift out of the Rockies next weekend and head for the Great Lakes. This system represents New England's best chance for widespread rainfall that we've seen in a while. There is still much uncertainty on the track of the storm, and it could largely miss New England, keeping the dry times rolling, but the possibility is also there that it will bring New England beneficial precipitation late next weekend or early next week.
The track issues with this system (why it's either a hit or complete miss for New England) is that the trough will likely enter the desert southwest this week. Model guidance tends to really struggle with what systems will do once they enter this region (they basically get lost in the desert). How this system plays out won't really be known until it exits the southwest mid to late this week. Normally, we wouldn't even bother bringing this up yet, but rainfall is badly needed, so we thought we'd throw it out there despite the very high uncertainty.
Below: 500mb height anomaly showing the aforementioned trough over the southwest. You can also see a developing tropical cyclone near Florida. This system also adds to the puzzle of this precipitation chance for New England:
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