Thursday is Shaping up to be the Most Unsettled Day in this Stretch for New England

This morning, the frontal boundary is draped across the southern New England coastline. The front will continue to very slowly sag southward, eventually settling just to the south of New England. The frontal boundary will remain just to New England's south for the rest of the week, providing the basis for some unsettled weather.

As the front dropped through New England, it provided multiple rounds of thunderstorms across southern parts of the region. While scattered activity was seen in the late afternoon and evening, the overnight round ended up packing the most punch. Areas that got under a storm picked up a quick 1-2 inches of rain and several thousand lost power. Just over 13,000 were without power across southern New England Wednesday morning, a number that will likely be quickly dropping through the day. A worst-case scenario on potential flooding was certainly avoided, however.

Today will remain mainly dry after a morning batch of showers and storms, but isolated activity will likely be around. Forcing will be weak, but afternoon heating and destabilization may allow for diurnally driven unsettled weather. A weak surface along the frontal boundary may provide enough energy for a round of showers and storms this evening. This is when activity will likely be the most widespread, though many areas may still miss wet weather across the region as a whole.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather this evening:

Thursday still looks to be the most active and wettest day across the region during this stretch. A more organized trough will move through the region with the surface boundary remaining south of New England. At the same time, a surface low pressure system will glance the region, lifting north and west of New England into Quebec. This setup will provide stronger forcing for more numerous showers and storms overnight tonight through the day Thursday.

A slug of steadier rain with embedded downpours will likely move across southern New England (and southern New Hampshire) overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. This slug of rain looks clear out by the afternoon. In the afternoon, a line of scattered showers and storms will likely develop across western New England and slide eastward into the evening, though the eastward extent of this afternoon round is a question. Once these storms hit the more stable marine air over eastern New England, they will likely weaken rather quickly.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Thursday morning (1st image) and Thursday afternoon (2nd image):

Some strong to severe storms will be possible across western New England Thursday afternoon. Some instability and modest shear look to combine with continued higher moisture and stronger lift to bring the ingredients for severe storms together. With that said, questions about overall coverage of storms and a weak cold pool will potentially be significant limiting factors. At this time, the setup looks to support more by way of isolated severe storms.

Should confidence increase in higher coverage of storms, the Storm Prediction Center would likely upgrade part of the northeast into a "slight" risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms, which will be something to watch. Storm motion also looks progressive, so while heavy downpours will again be possible within storms, the overall flash flood threat is on the lower end.

The more stable marine air being blown over eastern New England on Thursday along with an overall lack of daytime heating and instability means the afternoon storm threat is much more muted moving east of the Connecticut River. The best chance for storms east of the river will be across interior New Hampshire and Maine.

Heading into this weekend and next week, a warming trend is likely with widespread 80s returning to areas that will be kept cooler over the next couple days. Overall, a pretty typical summer pattern is on tap with the scattered storms and seasonable temperatures away from the coast over the next couple days. This weekend is shaping up to be a very nice July weekend. The extent of a warm-up next week will hinge on the timing of potential unsettled weather.