Unsettled Friday on Tap for New England Before Beautiful Stretch

New England’s next shot at widespread precipitation will come on Friday, in the form of another cold front. An upper-level low will likely travel north of New England, dragging its cold front across the region. This system will be slowed down by another system well offshore. This will allow for moisture to stream into New England ahead of the front and allow for a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

The upper-level low will likely slow way down or stall just to New England's north, allowing for the showers to pinwheel around the system's cold front from west to east. The cold front will likely enter into westernmost New England in the morning, with showers most likely across Vermont. Isolated/spot showers are possible farther east in New England as well, but morning coverage will likely be limited.

As the front pushes east through the day, showers will become more widespread and conditions will become more favorable for scattered thunderstorms. Areas east of the Connecticut River will have the best chance at more widespread afternoon activity, including thunderstorms, beginning in the early afternoon and continuing through the evening. The biggest question will be exact timing as the front will be slow-moving, which inherently makes it more difficult to get a handle on in regards to where it will be set up in the afternoon.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-morning Friday (1st image) and mid-afternoon Friday (2nd image):

Friday will be an unsettled day all around, with the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With that said, it will not be an all-day washout for anyone. Morning showers will mainly be limited to western New England and the more widespread afternoon activity will involve scattered thunderstorms rather than a shield of steady rain. It stills looks likely New England will see a widespread 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rainfall. Rain totals will likely end up highly varied from area to area given the scattered nature of thunderstorms.

A narrow ribbon of elevated moisture is expected to develop ahead of the front, and where this sets up in the afternoon will likely see the most rainfall out of this system. This has shifted a bit farther east in the last 24 hours, with interior Maine likely to see the most rainfall. Away from the coast, Maine will have the best chance to approach one inch or more of rainfall as the front will likely reach Maine in the late afternoon/early evening, when forcing will be strongest.

While shear will be modest in the afternoon, which is the main ingredient for storms to strengthen, not much else is working in favor of strong to severe storms. Instability will be low and moisture overall will be marginal. The overall setup may be rather similar to yesterday with cold air moving in aloft, so small hail and gusty winds will be possible, but both hail and wind will very likely remain below severe thresholds.

The upper-level low will likely remain parked just to New England's north for much of Saturday. The system's front may not clear eastern Maine until later Saturday morning. With the system parked just north of New England, scattered showers will likely continue into the day across the northern third of the region, with the most widespread activity across eastern Maine. High pressure will be trying to nudge back into New England in the wake of the frontal passage, aiding in conditions drying out Saturday for most.

Once this system clears out of New England's area by Sunday morning, sprawling surface high pressure will take hold. This will likely bring several days of very quiet, dry and seasonable weather through the middle of next week. A persistent dry, continental air mass over the region will keep 70s dominating for highs with minimal to no humidity.