(Very) Slow Drying Trend Continues for New England

What's left of Thursday's nor'easter is now a cutoff low sitting just to the east of Maine. This system will continue to rotate plenty of clouds and scattered showers through New England today. With the same setup in place as yesterday, it will basically be a repeat of Friday with showers becoming most numerous by around mid-afternoon and lasting through the evening before beginning to break up once again.

Below: FV3 showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:

Heading into Sunday, the cutoff low will continue its very slow departure. The system will likely push across Nova Scotia during the day. This will weaken forcing for showers and allow for a generally drier day and allow for the potential for more breaks in the cloud cover. Despite the departure of the low, a cold pool of air aloft will linger across New England. This will likely result in cloud development and create the potential for a few showers to develop, though coverage of showers should be much less than Friday and Saturday.

High pressure will begin to build to New England's west on Sunday. With the cutoff low still to New England's east, this will likely create breezy conditions, with winds gusting in the 20-30mph range. Drier air associated with the ridge will try to push into New England, but the cold pool over New England will try to keep the clouds and showers around. These two features will be battling over New England. Overall thinner clouds should allow temperatures to tick a notch warmer on Sunday.

Below: Pressure Sunday afternoon, showing low pressure trying to hang on while a ridge of high pressure tries to build in from the west:

Heading into Memorial Day, the overall setup will be fairly similar to Sunday. The main difference will be that the low and high pressure systems will be shifted slightly farther east. This will place New England more under the influence of the high pressure system, allowing the very gradual improvement trend to continue. The low will likely still be just close enough to create just enough lift for cloud and/or shower development. At this point, it looks like an isolated shower or two would be the worst-case scenario for most.

As the cutoff low loosens its grip on the region, temperatures will gradually March their way up as shower chances continue to drop. Temperatures will continue to tick a notch warmer each day than the last through midweek next week. Widespread highs in the mid 60s to low 70s should be on tap for Monday with 70s dominating heading into midweek. Sea-breezes will likely keep the coastal plain cooler through next week.

The area of high pressure to New England's west will cross New England on Tuesday, resulting in what will likely be the warmest day in a while for most of New England. This high pressure will likely suppress an area of low pressure to New England's south through midweek, resulting in a Rex Block-type setup for the middle of the week. This occurs when an area of high pressure sits directly north of an area of low pressure.

Below: Current weather map for Tuesday morning, showing the an expansive area of high pressure over the northern tier of the US with low pressure across the south:

This setup can result in cool and unsettled weather in the southern area of low pressure with warm and dry weather in the northern area of high pressure. At this point, it looks like New England may be caught in the middle of the high and low pressure around the middle of next week. This setup is looking to keep the low pressure suppressed south of New England through midweek while New England generally remains on the side of the high pressure.

Eastern Maine will be the farthest removed from the trough to our southwest midweek, so they will have the best chance at above average temperatures heading into early to mid next week. Temperatures during this time will hinge heavily on the placement of the low pressure system. Should it trend farther north in the coming days, temperatures next week will trend down.

Below: Forecast temperature departure from average on Wednesday, showing warmth over Canada with cooler weather over much of the United States. New England itself is caught on the edge, but generally on the side of the ridge with Maine closest to the warmest weather:

Uncertainty begins to increase late next week and into next weekend. This comes as the high pressure will move offshore of New England, making room for the next system to push eastward. Two areas of low pressure may merge over New England late next week or over the weekend, bringing the chances for more unsettled weather back into the picture. This system doesn't look particularly strong at this point and could result in just a few showers or a period of more steady rain; which way it will go is very hard to say at this point.

Regardless of precipitation, it will help keep temperatures down from summer-like levels. How this late-week trough plays out will heavily impact what temperatures will look like next Thursday through the weekend. A more organized system with more rainfall would keep temperatures on the low end. Overall, the going forecast at the moment keeps seasonable temperatures running through next week without any pounding rain storms or soaring temperatures.

Below: 500mb height anomaly next Saturday, showing a general ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern continuing: