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Weekend Storm Trends Further Offshore of New England

For the past several days, we've been watching for the potential of a potent cold front to join forces with an approaching coastal storm. The question was how much would these two systems interact, as more interaction could lead to a more widespread heavy rain event. Over the past 24 hours, the coastal storm has trended further offshore, limiting the interaction and lowering the impacts to New England.




Despite this, there will still be some rain Friday night into Saturday. A majority of New England will remain dry during the daylight hours on Friday with rainfall ahead of the cold front entering into Vermont and western Massachusetts by the late afternoon. Friday will be a mild day, with highs well above average across the region. The cold front will gradually push eastward throughout Friday night, bringing with it the rain. The front should reach the coast by Saturday afternoon.


Expected weather Friday evening (1st image) and Saturday morning (2nd image):


The coastal storm will likely be pushing up the coast by Saturday morning, however, with the storm track further east and the fact that the cold front will have pushed toward the coast by then, rainfall from that storm will be mostly offshore of New England until the system gets into far eastern Maine.



The areas with the greatest chance of seeing steadier rain will be across Cape Cod and the Islands, as well as Downeast Maine. The rest of New England will likely just see scattered, lighter showers through Saturday morning. Drier air works in behind the front, which will help shut off showers for most of New England in the afternoon. Saturday will NOT be a washout for most of New England.


While most will likely be drying out by Saturday afternoon, eastern Maine will likely be getting into at least part of the coastal storm, the bulk of this storm is trending toward hitting Nova Scotia. Downeast Maine in particular is looking at the heaviest rain from this system, which will likely fall Saturday afternoon and evening. Just how heavy the rain will be here is dependent on the coastal storm's track. If the system continues its eastward trend, it would mean lower rainfall.


Expected weather Saturday afternoon (1st image) and evening 2nd image):



Also, while a vast majority of New England will be seeing an all-rain event as temperatures remain rather mild, northern and eastern Maine could see some mixing and snowfall. A couple of inches of snow could accumulate in northern areas. The amount of snow will be dependent on how quickly temperatures can drop behind the cold front and elevation will play a role, as always. Models remain split on how much of the storm will be rain vs snow in this area.


When all is said and done, much of New England is looking low rainfall amounts, with less than an inch across a vast majority of the region, with far less than that in some areas. This is looking more and more like scattered showers rather than a steady rain. The exception will be eastern Maine, who could see up to an inch of rain.



Winds will also be gusty as the cold front pushes through and remains elevated after the frontal passage. Winds will be strongest in western New England as well as eastern Maine (being closest to the storm). These winds are expected to stay below the threshold for any kind of damage. Overall, this is a low to even no impact storm.


Sunday will dry out with brighter skies for most, although some mountain snow showers will likely develop in the afternoon. The passage of this cold front will mark a drop in temperatures through at least Tuesday. We're still watching a potential storm system to impact New England the day before Thanksgiving.



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