Wet Saturday Continues Before a Stretch of Drier Weather

Our latest cutoff low currently sits over eastern Massachusetts and will continue to slowly rise northeast through the day into the Gulf of Maine. This will continue to pinwheel showers through the region. As the low lifts northeast through the day, a general drying trend is expected from west to east this afternoon and evening. This will set up a drier stretch of weather starting on Sunday.

Through Saturday morning, rainfall rates of at least a half inch an hour are expected to continue. These rates are most likely over eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire as very moisture-rich showers stream off the Atlantic Ocean. A flood warning has been issued for southern New Hampshire due to this combined with all the rain that has previously fallen. This currently remains in effect through noon today. Flood watches remain in effect through this evening.

Currently, the Connecticut River, Housatonic River, Squannacook River, Suncook River and Otter Creek are forecast to reach minor flood stage. Many rivers around the region are expected to reach (or have already reached) action stage. Any flooding is expected to remain localized and minor. Flash flooding is not expected as rainfall rates would need to exceed an inch an hour for an extended period of time, and this is highly unlikely.

Below: Current river flood gauge forecast:

All of this still looks to move out in time for Mother's Day. A weak cold front will dive through New England tonight, bringing much drier air into the region. High pressure will build behind this front, clearing out both rainfall and clouds, bringing about a pretty pleasant day. Highs will be warmer than Saturday; around seasonable levels. It will be a bit cooler across the higher terrain. It will also be a bit breezy as well.

Below: Temperature departure from average for Sunday afternoon:

A few pop-up showers will be possible, mainly across the northern tier late morning or early afternoon Sunday as a very weak disturbance rides around the periphery of the departing cutoff low. Outside of these few, quick showers, skies will likely be mostly sunny across the region.

Starting early next week, a pattern shift will occur that places New England under ridging rather than the constant troughing over the past week and a half. This will likely lead to a gradual warming trend with widespread temperatures returning to the 70s and possibly low 80s for interior areas by early next week. With high pressure around, an onshore flow will likely create a sea breeze, keeping the coastal plain cooler. Overall, a trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern may develop.

With that said, generally wet patterns are very hard to break out of, especially in the springtime. After midweek, more unsettled weather could develop. A persistent onshore flow is expected through pretty much all of next week. This will do its best to spoil warm temperatures across eastern New England. It will also allow for a rise in humidity and potential cloud cover as well.