When (and how) Will New England Warm Back Up as Nor'Easter Pulls Away?

As the center of the nor’easter crosses into the Gulf of Maine this morning, scattered showers will continue to cycle through New England from the northeast, with showers most numerous over Maine. This was a prime winter storm setup and likely would have been the Blizzard of 2025 if this blew through a few months ago. Here in late May, the storm brought a widespread 3-6 inches of rain to southern New England.

The system will be slow to exit, with scattered showers hanging around across New England through Saturday. It may take until Saturday evening to push east of Maine. The drying trend will be a very gradual one with this system, but looks to mostly wrap up by Sunday, with just a few smaller showers popping up around the region.

Below: NAM showing potential weather Saturday afternoon:

Overall, the system will keep broad cyclonic flow over New England through the weekend, resulting in plenty of clouds, scattered showers and continued cool temperatures. By Sunday, high pressure will begin to build into the west of New England while the storm system continues its slow jog away from New England, allowing for drier weather and moderating temperatures. After another very chilly day Friday, temperatures will be ticking up each day as the nor'easter slowly loosens its grip and ridging spreads into the region.

The area of high pressure to New England's west will cross New England on Tuesday, resulting in what will likely be the warmest day in a while for most of New England. This high pressure will likely suppress an area of low pressure to New England's south through midweek, resulting in a Rex Block-type setup for the middle of the week. This occurs when an area of high pressure sits directly north of an area of low pressure.

Below: Current weather map for Tuesday morning, showing the an expansive area of high pressure over the northern tier of the US with low pressure across the south:

This setup can result in cool and unsettled weather in the southern area of low pressure with warm and dry weather in the northern area of high pressure. At this point, it looks like New England may be caught in the middle of the high and low pressure around the middle of next week. This may allow for some pop-up scattered afternoon showers around midweek, but nothing too organized or widespread. This would also result in temperatures around average as the region won't be firmly under either the warm high or cool low.

Eastern Maine will be the farthest removed from the trough to our southwest, so they will have the best chance at above average temperatures heading into early to mid next week. Temperatures during this time will hinge heavily on the placement of the low pressure system. Should it trend farther north in the coming days, temperatures next week will trend down. This is currently more likely than upward trending temperatures.

Below: Euro showing temperature departure from average Tuesday afternoon (1st image) and Wednesday afternoon (2nd image). You can see the warm temperatures over Canada north of New England and the cooler weather to the southwest of New England. New England itself is caught in between, with Maine closest to the warmer weather:

Uncertainty begins to increase late next week and into next weekend. This comes as the high pressure will move offshore of New England, making room for the next system to push eastward. Two areas of low pressure may merge over New England late next week or over the weekend, bringing the chances for more unsettled weather back into the picture. This system doesn't look particularly strong at this point and could result in just a few showers or a period of more steady rain; which way it will go is very hard to say at this point.

Regardless of precipitation, it will help keep temperatures down from summer-like levels. How this late-week trough plays out will heavily impact what temperatures will look like next Thursday through the weekend. A more organized system with more rainfall would keep temperatures on the low end. Overall, the going forecast at the moment keeps seasonable temperatures running through next week without any pounding rain storms or soaring temperatures.

Below: 500mb height anomaly next Saturday, showing a general ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern continuing:

Looking into the extended outlook (heading into early June), the current weather pattern looks to gradually break down. The current state of the weather over the United States generally features an amplified flow (when the jet stream is more wavy with large troughs and ridges). The east has been entrenched within a trough during this time. Heading toward early June, signals are pointing toward a less amplified flow, meaning ridges and troughs will be less pronounced.

This would lead to a more zonal flow, when the jet stream lays generally flatter across the country. This change would present better chances for more sustained seasonable temperatures for New England, but not necessarily create conditions ripe for full-on summer heat. How it all plays out each day will depend on smaller-scale factors that can't be predicted over a week out, but New England is slightly favored for above average temperatures to kick off June.