Another Warm Day for New England Before a Cold Front

A frontal system will cross to the north of New England today and tonight, bringing continued warm temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and the overnight hours. Overall, New England's stretch of low-impact weather will continue over the next week with seasonable to mild temperatures and occasional bouts of precipitation.

The peak of this current warming trend will occur today as the system's warm front pushes through New England. Behind this front, a deep and strong southwesterly flow will develop, boosting temperatures a good 30-40° from this morning's lows. Most of the region will make it to the low 70s to low 80s today.

The exception will be eastern Maine, especially near the coastline, where a southwesterly wind is more of an onshore breeze, which will keep things cooler given the chilly ocean. A stark temperature contrast will likely set up over Maine with 60s being separated from upper 70s to low 80s over a few miles.

Below: HRRR showing potential temperatures this afternoon:

The system's cold front will slide through New England from west to east later in the afternoon through the overnight hours. This front will provide the basis for a line of thunderstorms across western New England later today into tonight. Overall, the timing of the line of storms has trended later in the day.

The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will remain to New England's west, across upstate New York, where the front will cross in the middle of the afternoon. With that said, the front will likely cross into Vermont by the evening. This will allow the forcing and lift from the front to tap into some daytime instability and moisture for western New England.

Below: Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook for today, showing the chance for a severe weather outbreak from the Ohio Valley to Upstate New York:

Both instability and moisture will likely be limited with CAPE values likely not exceeding 500 joules/kilogram and dew points remaining in the 50s. This will likely greatly reduce the severe threat for Vermont, but some isolated strong to severe storms may spill into the area from New York should they arrive early enough in the evening. With the trend toward a later arrival, the threat for storms pushing beyond Vermont has lowered.

As the front and line of storms and showers continue to push eastward Tuesday evening and night, it will weaken as daytime heating and instability wanes. The chance for storms steadily decreases moving eastward in the region, but the chance for showers will be present for the entire region through sunrise Wednesday.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday evening (1st image) and around midnight tonight (2nd image):

As mentioned before, a strong southerly flow will occur over New England today. This will be coming thanks to a modest low-level jet that will be increasing as the day goes on. This low-level jet will reach speeds of 45-55mph, creating wind gusts of 30-40mph at the surface today. These winds will be the primary source in transporting this milder air into the region. Gusty winds will continue after the passage of the cold front, with winds shifting to the northwest, bringing the cooler air mass with it.

Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler, albeit still above seasonable levels, within the post-cold front air mass. It will likely remain breezy as well. Overall, it will remain very pleasant to end April and begin May. The next system will enter New England Friday into Saturday with showers as another cold front enters the picture. Weak disturbances look to move across the cold front both Friday and Saturday, bringing with them rounds of precipitation. At this point, these systems continue to look low-impact.

Temperatures will remain on their typical spring roller coaster ride with very warm weather today followed by a cool-down for Wednesday and Thursday. The approaching system will bring back a southerly flow for Friday and Saturday, boosting temperatures once again. Another cool-down is likely for the start of next week after another cold front.