New England Weather This Week: Mid-Spring

This week will be a very mid-springlike week, which makes sense given the time of year. It'll be on the warmer side more often than not (during the daytime, anyway) with a couple waves of precipitation.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

The beginning of this week will feature a major warming trend from the weekend. On Monday, high pressure will build into the region, lightening the northwest winds and allowing sunshine to return. Both of these facts will allow temperatures to shoot up a few notches from Sunday, into the 60s north and 70s south. A continued light northwest flow will keep the sea breeze at bay for most of the day as well.

The warming trend continues into Tuesday with widespread 70s to low 80s. This will come as a southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. This cold front will slide through New England from west to east later in the afternoon through the overnight hours. This front will provide the basis for a line of thunderstorms across western New England in the late afternoon and evening.

The best chance for strong to severe thunderstorms will remain to New England's west, across upstate New York, where the front will cross in the middle of the afternoon. With that said, the front will likely cross into Vermont by the evening. This will allow the forcing and lift from the front to tap into some daytime instability and moisture.

Both instability and moisture will likely be limited with CAPE values likely not exceeding 500 joules/kilogram and dew points remaining in the 50s. This will likely greatly reduce the severe threat for Vermont, but some isolated strong to severe storms may spill into the area from New York should they arrive early enough in the afternoon or evening. Since this is the first real strong storm chance of the season, here is our article explaining what goes into stronger storms and what the above terms mean.

Below: Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday, showing the highest likelihood of severe storms remaining to the west of New England:

As the front and line of storms and showers continue to push eastward Tuesday evening and night, it will weaken as daytime heating and instability wanes. The chance for storms steadily decreases moving eastward in the region, but the chance for showers will be present for the entire region through sunrise Wednesday. A period of gusty winds will likely follow the passage of the front.

Below: FV3 showing potential weather mid-afternoon Tuesday (1st image) and very early Wednesday morning (2nd image):

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

Wednesday will feature a cooler air mass behind the cold front. Afternoon highs on Wednesday may not warm too much from morning lows, though this will depend on the exact timing of the cold front. The front won't bring a drastic drop in temperatures and is more likely to return the region back to seasonable levels for the time of year. High pressure will dominate during this time with very quiet and dry weather.

Below: GFS showing potential temperatures Wednesday afternoon:

FRIDAY

Precipitation chances increase once again on Friday as a weak frontal system passes to the north of the region. This will lift a warm front into the region, providing the forcing for showers to develop late Thursday and into Friday. As of now, it looks like the bulk of showers will move through in the morning for most with the warm front. Another round of scattered showers may develop in the afternoon and evening along the system's cold front, though this timing will be fine-tuned through the week.

WEEKEND

Another weaker system may ride up the cold front Saturday morning, bringing another round of scattered showers for the day. Depending on where Friday and Saturday's systems set up, Sunday could end up pretty similar to this past Sunday with mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds and spot shower chances. Overall, exactly how this upcoming weekend will play out is highly uncertain and could trend drier or wetter as the week progresses.

Below: Current weather maps for Saturday and Sunday (May 3 and 4):